This September, it'll be ten years since the original release of Grand Theft Auto V on PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360, making countless fans of the open world series eager to get their hands on GTA VI.
The next installment in what's arguably the biggest gaming franchise was officially confirmed in February 2022, when Rockstar Games said the development was 'well underway'.
A month earlier, industry analysts speculated that GTA VI could be released in fiscal year 2024, which runs from April 2023 to March 2024. The speculation was based on Take-Two's projected $9 billion in net bookings for that fiscal year.
However, yesterday's Q4 2023 earnings report and subsequent call have clarified that the forecast has changed. Take-Two reported net bookings of $5.28 billion (up 55% year-over-year) for the recently concluded fiscal year, thanks to a strong last quarter of GTA V, GTA Online, Red Dead Redemption 2, and Zynga's mobile portfolio that brought in $1.4 billion.
More interestingly, though, Take-Two offered new forecasts for the next three fiscal years. The publisher now expects to earn $5.45 billion to $5.55 billion in net bookings in fiscal year 2024, down from the previous $9 billion forecast. Even the breakdown of titles scheduled for the next fiscal year (such as Star Wars: Hunters) clearly shows that GTA VI won't be there, suggesting a delay into fiscal year 2025.
Indeed, Take-Two is very bullish for the year that opens on April 2024 and ends in March 2025, forecasting over $8 billion in net bookings. CEO Strauss Zelnick openly said it's a 'highly anticipated year' where the company plans to launch several 'groundbreaking' titles that will set 'new standards for the industry'. That certainly seems to hint at a new Grand Theft Auto.
During the investors call, various analysts attempted to get Take-Two executives to spill the beans on what games would be released in fiscal year 2025, but they wouldn't budge.
However, it's worth noting that Take-Two forecasts an even bigger fiscal year 2026. The reason for that might be continued revenue from GTA VI (and its assured online mode) and possibly the new BioShock game in development at Cloud Chamber. The game was formally announced in late 2019 when the developers said the work would continue for the next several years. A launch at some point in calendar year 2025 seems to be a strong possibility, as few other IPs in Take-Two's roster could have that much of an impact on net bookings.
Going back to GTA VI, the only credible rumor we have so far points to the game featuring a couple of playable protagonists, a male and a Latina female, a first for the series. The couple is reportedly inspired by real-life bank robbers Bonnie and Clyde.
